Interconnected vectors across security, economic, cultural, and rhetorical fault-lines are keeping the African Great Lakes states in a state of perpetual conflict and instability — creating a vicious cycle that threatens to boil over throughout the region.
All in Conflict & Peace
Ten years after anti-government protests rocked the Middle East, instability continues to plague Yemen — yet even while the will of the Yemeni people remains largely forgotten, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
The top-down approach to peacebuilding and development is the most widely-used and accepted format for an operation, involving a broad, readily-adopted diplomatic framework for operating in-country. Yet, it’s precisely this 60,000-foot view that causes these operations to fail so often.
The Assad regime’s ineffective, stunted, and selective response to the coronavirus is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Syria and threatens to upend what little stability the country has achieved since ISIS’ defeat.
In a great irony, the COVID-19 pandemic might be a harbinger of peaceful times for Yemen. After more than 5 years of war and a severe humanitarian crisis, multiple ceasefire declarations by the Saudi-led coalition, plummeting oil prices, and a significant redirection of funds towards the domestic healthcare sector might finally convince the warring parties to agree to a durable peace accord.
ITS’ own Amanda Löwenberg saw the destruction wrought by the Beirut explosion firsthand. This is her story.
Libya has become a chessboard for regional and foreign powers as Europe stands by, risking the creation of another geopolitical and refugee crisis in Northern Africa. There is a clear alternative path for Brussels and other European capitals to take.
Since the onset of the peace process in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995, The Dayton Peace Accords codified the institutionalization of ethnic division and structural and political violence against minorities in BiH. As a result, political violence has become a defining feature of the post-Dayton era Bosnia.
While UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ call for a global ceasefire on March 23rd was met with encouraging responses from many state and non-state actors, its effects on the ground are complex and difficult to predict. To gather insight on the potential effects of COVID-19 on the prospects for renewed peace efforts, Daniel Odin Shaw interviews Dr. Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, a Research Director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
Traditional peace negotiations tend to focus on the principal issues at hand — often conflict resolution or territorial demarcation. Instead, Kyiv and Moscow should address smaller issues first to overcome mutual distrust and establish a dialogue and atmosphere of cooperation.
Following Trump’s announcement of the U.S. withdrawal from parts of Syria, Turkey launched a military operation on Kurdish forces in Northeastern Syria. Not only is Europe's future relationship with Turkey at risk, but its relations with the wider Middle East, its reputation and credibility as a defender of human rights and democracy, and its geopolitical interests are all at stake.
The April 9th election will not only decide who will lead Israel as Prime Minister, but it also has the potential to make drastic changes to Israeli policies towards the Palestinian Territories. Netanyahu’s victory may strike the deathblow to the two-state solution. His defeat could herald the rebirth of the Palestinian peace process. Israeli voters must now decide: to gamble on Gantz’s promise of diplomacy under fresh leadership or to defend Netanyahu’s narrative of an Israel under siege.
While the government insists on communities ending their blockade of the highway to meet, locals contend that they want President Duque himself to set a date to meet communities before they end their blockade. The standoff between the government and local indigenous communities is in its 18th day. The current situation is a result of the tremendous inequality in Cauca, longstanding indigenous complaints and unmet government promises – which threatens to spark a broader national movement. The government can end this protest, but doing so may invite future unrest.
The Crimean Peninsula may have strategic significance for the Russian military, but Russian President Vladimir Putin can no longer play the Crimea card at home for political gain. Even though the 2014 annexation of Crimea resulted in a sharp increase in the Russian president’s approval ratings, five years on the matter has been overshadowed by widespread economic hardship.
Despite major conflicts between India and Pakistan, the one constant rule has been the sanctity of the de facto borders in the contested territory of Kashmir. Such an understanding has ensured that both nations, while heavily active on the border, dare not violate it whatsoever, to the extent that individuals meeting in border crossings into the region usually maintain cordial relations. However, India and Pakistan’s de facto policy on the Kashmir region has changed dramatically over the last few years, perhaps irrevocably.
Large bombings, only days apart, in Bogota and Derry/Londonderry have put paid to any notions of a simple peace process in either country. The Irish and Colombian peace processes face increasing uncertainty as the FARC deal remains delicately balanced against social tension and the Good Friday Agreement hangs under threat from the Brexit process. In both Colombia and Northern Ireland this situation incentivizes outbidding and conspicuous displays of force as armed groups jockey for power in anticipation of a breakdown in social order.
On the 14th of February, two conferences took place on the Middle East. One, featuring representatives from over 60 countries, took place in Warsaw under the leadership of the United States, with generous support from Poland. The other one was a trilateral summit at Sochi, featuring the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Turkey, and organized by Russia. These two summits provide a perfect example of the two approaches that major powers currently employ towards the region, as well as the sharp contrasts in the leadership and effectiveness of Russia and America in the region.
With a return to great power competition, national security priorities are shifting. States, rather than non-state actors like terrorist groups or insurgencies, are the primary security threat. The idea that security encompasses more than military and defense issues alone has returned. The security paradigm of the twenty-first century has expanded to nearly every facet of human life.
Benjamin Franklin, remarking on the coming end of the American Revolutionary War, opined that “there was never a good War, or a bad Peace.” But not all peace is equal, and not all ceasefires lead to peace. The consequences of decisions made during negotiations will continue to reverberate long after the ink has dried. Policymakers must now reconcile the disparities created during the peace process that have benefited national security at the expense of the most vulnerable communities.