The United States urgently needs dispassionate, wholesale reappraisals of its foreign policy to prepare itself for the long-term in an increasingly competitive, multipolar world order.
All in United States
The success of 21st-century American statecraft will be defined by its ability to meet transnational challenges with a sustainable playbook that breaches the gap between domestic governance and foreign policy.
Ali Wyne — an expert in the field of geopolitics and a rising voice in U.S. Foreign Policy circles — joined ITS’ Liam Kraft (Director, U.S. Foreign Policy Programme) to discuss U.S. foreign policy and grand strategy in the face of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, rising great power competition, and the U.S. debate over democratic values.
At a time when a polarized American political environment challenges U.S. capacity to construct and follow through on durable strategies for American engagement in the world, old enemies around the globe are empowered with new tools at their disposal. Authoritarian governments have found new ways to more effectively silence critics, harass opponents, control or influence the information at home, and manipulate online content to serve their own interests.
On May 3, a U.S.-led mercenary group sailed to the fishing village of Chuao in Venezuela, only to be immediately apprehended while attempting to land. Even as events were unfolding, it became apparent that the small group was plotting to capture and overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While this spectacular fiasco might appear an anomalous deviation, it is in fact representative of past American conduct in the Western Hemisphere.
Domestic factors are substantially affecting the way the U.S. engages international affairs and will carry long term implications for the face of American power, values, alliances, and grand strategy abroad. Surveying the U.S. political landscape for ways to restore the foundations of American democracy is as important for the future of U.S. foreign policy as analyzing the global system within which the country operates.
Zelenskiy’s victory came as a shock to many, but was not entirely unexpected. Although Zelenskiy’s fresh face might be a balm in domestic politics, where corruption is rampant and toxic, but will it be enough to face Russia in the East?
5G technology will allow companies to “slice the network” and sort the signals bandwidth for different uses that require immediate and continuous connection. Nevertheless, 5G technology presents significant risks to cybersecurity. The plethora of suspected and confirmed cases against Chinese actors seeking the theft of trade secrets and extralegal network access has left many Western governments wary of both Huawei and of introducing 5G technology domestically.
In the United States, like much of the Western world, people are losing faith in Democracy. To many people, Democracy is as they have experienced it. What is absent from our societal conceptions of Democracy — and therefore our faith in it — is Democracy as we haven’t experienced it. Yet to the keen observer, the failures of Western democracies are not inherent to Democracy itself, but rather to our implementations of it.
On the 14th of February, two conferences took place on the Middle East. One, featuring representatives from over 60 countries, took place in Warsaw under the leadership of the United States, with generous support from Poland. The other one was a trilateral summit at Sochi, featuring the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Turkey, and organized by Russia. These two summits provide a perfect example of the two approaches that major powers currently employ towards the region, as well as the sharp contrasts in the leadership and effectiveness of Russia and America in the region.
There is a growing tide of opinion in the U.S. that treats China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a grand strategy of epic economic and geopolitical proportions. It holds that China is “methodically assembling a network of client governments in hock to Beijing and advancing its military ambitions.” But China is not a monolith, and neither is the Belt and Road Initiative. BRI, in reality, is a brand — a grab-bag of initiatives and projects that numerous Chinese institutions independently design and advance.
The United States has officially announced that it is withdrawing from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Force Treaty in response to what it deems a “material breach” of the Treaty by the Russian Federation. Although the announcement marks the official loss of the Treaty, the unraveling of the INF has been years in the making. Although neither the United States nor Russia are yet able to agree upon who is to blame for the demise of the INF Treaty, there is no doubt that the next move is Moscow’s to make.
In the last decade, we witnessed many stable Western democracies degenerate into populist rancor and anti-establishment upheaval. Yet, it is the capacity of the people to learn and adapt that has always proven Democracy’s ace. Perhaps now more than ever, Democracy needs a course-correct.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 left Spain scrambling to reassemble a broken economy and combat soaring unemployment. European austerity measures and Catalonian dreams of independence have since occupied all of Madrid’s bandwidth and effectively back-seated Spanish foreign policy for over a decade. With the rise of Pedro Sánchez and the wounds of the financial crisis healing, Madrid has turned its attention back to Brussels, and is ready to assume the role of a leading power in Europe.
The events of late September perfectly illustrate how the Syrian Civil War has devolved into a series of proxy wars, with nations being involved in the country in a variety of ways. The recent announcement of a Turkish and Russian backed de-escalation zone in Idlib and the airstrikes by Israel against suspected Iranian pro-regime forces in Latakia, just show the variety of regional nations with interests in the country. In order to understand the impact these developments will have on the actions of these countries moving forward, it is crucial understand why such a large number of nations have become embroiled in this conflict.
North Korea has not produced any measurable and verifiable denuclearization measures after the Singapore Summit in June, and yet the United States seems to have no intention of imposing sanctions or applying pressures other than UN sanctions on North Korea. In contrast, the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal saw resounding success in demilitarizing Iran’s nuclear program. Yet, despite these achievements, the Trump administration has withdrawn from the pact and reinstated sanctions on Iran.
China has been pursuing an aggressive technological development agenda that threatens to undermine traditional U.S. superiority in advanced technologies. The Chinese technology sector’s alarming growth and emerging status as a real competitor to both Silicon Valley and the U.S. defense technology industry mirrors China’s ambitions for global leadership in political, economic, and military arenas. An increase in technological capabilities could become a sort of “cherry on top” that threatens the dominance and security of the U.S. and its allies in the Pacific.
Despite Trump’s apparent drive to torpedo the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran Deal, President Macron seemed cautiously optimistic about the prospect that the United States would remain party to the deal, suggesting the development of an add-on deal or revised JCPOA which would address ancillary concerns in Washington. But the Europeans will have to do much more to save the Iran Deal and bring lasting peace between Brussels, Washington, and Tehran.
As ISIS crumbles in the Levant and the variety of anti-ISIS operations reach their crescendo, the Syrian civil war appears to have acquired yet an additional degree of complexity—Operation Olive Branch, a Turkish military campaign against Syrian Kurdish forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
On January 20th, 2017, in an effort to normalize relations with Cuba, President Obama announced the end of the "wet foot, dry foot" policy that allowed Cuban refugees who reached U.S. soil a pathway to residency after one year. In a joint statement Cuban President Raul Castro called for Cubans to respect the policy decision and noted that the law was a benchmark in improving bilateral relations.