On the 9th of February 2020, the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, invaded the Salvadoran Legislative Assembly, backed up by armed military and police. “Now, I think it is very clear who has control of the situation," Bukele declared before praying. But he was not referring to God and it was not the introduction to the prayer. Behind the apparent act of faith lies a very real threat to those that would oppose his rule.
All in Latin America
On May 3, a U.S.-led mercenary group sailed to the fishing village of Chuao in Venezuela, only to be immediately apprehended while attempting to land. Even as events were unfolding, it became apparent that the small group was plotting to capture and overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While this spectacular fiasco might appear an anomalous deviation, it is in fact representative of past American conduct in the Western Hemisphere.
While the government insists on communities ending their blockade of the highway to meet, locals contend that they want President Duque himself to set a date to meet communities before they end their blockade. The standoff between the government and local indigenous communities is in its 18th day. The current situation is a result of the tremendous inequality in Cauca, longstanding indigenous complaints and unmet government promises – which threatens to spark a broader national movement. The government can end this protest, but doing so may invite future unrest.
Large bombings, only days apart, in Bogota and Derry/Londonderry have put paid to any notions of a simple peace process in either country. The Irish and Colombian peace processes face increasing uncertainty as the FARC deal remains delicately balanced against social tension and the Good Friday Agreement hangs under threat from the Brexit process. In both Colombia and Northern Ireland this situation incentivizes outbidding and conspicuous displays of force as armed groups jockey for power in anticipation of a breakdown in social order.
The European response to recent developments of the crisis in Venezuela is a strong example of how European common foreign policy is made and implemented in practice. In areas of policy where EU governments can compellingly argue that they have a better understanding of the situation they can carry real authority. Fellow EU states who may not be invested in a situation at all will be willing to listen and follow their lead.
Benjamin Franklin, remarking on the coming end of the American Revolutionary War, opined that “there was never a good War, or a bad Peace.” But not all peace is equal, and not all ceasefires lead to peace. The consequences of decisions made during negotiations will continue to reverberate long after the ink has dried. Policymakers must now reconcile the disparities created during the peace process that have benefited national security at the expense of the most vulnerable communities.
As public and military support continue to mount, Guaidó is preparing to challenge Maduro and has called for a change of power. At Guaidó’s behest, the first public rally for Maduro to resign will take place today, January 23rd, with a massive protest against the Maduro government. The opposition must demonstrate to the Venezuelan people and the international community that they can — and will — bring about a peaceful democratic transition. The time is now, or never.
On January 20th, 2017, in an effort to normalize relations with Cuba, President Obama announced the end of the "wet foot, dry foot" policy that allowed Cuban refugees who reached U.S. soil a pathway to residency after one year. In a joint statement Cuban President Raul Castro called for Cubans to respect the policy decision and noted that the law was a benchmark in improving bilateral relations.
While U.S. analysts have a keen eye on activity in Ukraine and Syria, few have seriously considered the fact that Russia has slowly been expanding its presence in Latin America. Last spring a new Russian compound was erected in the jungles near Nicaragua’s capital city Managua. Nicaraguan officials claim that the compound is used to house the surveillance equipment necessary in the fight against international drug trafficking, but some U.S. analysts suspect that the Russians have ulterior motives.
By now it is well known that Venezuela is in economic and political crisis, but labeling the Maduro government as a dictatorship marks a new phase in this ongoing conflict. Venezuela, once South America’s richest country is now embroiled in chaos marked with food shortages, street protests, and general unrest. In less than twenty years time, Venezuela lost it all, and honestly, the tale of Venezuela is neither unique nor surprising.