In a great irony, the COVID-19 pandemic might be a harbinger of peaceful times for Yemen. After more than 5 years of war and a severe humanitarian crisis, multiple ceasefire declarations by the Saudi-led coalition, plummeting oil prices, and a significant redirection of funds towards the domestic healthcare sector might finally convince the warring parties to agree to a durable peace accord.
All tagged Iran
On the 14th of February, two conferences took place on the Middle East. One, featuring representatives from over 60 countries, took place in Warsaw under the leadership of the United States, with generous support from Poland. The other one was a trilateral summit at Sochi, featuring the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Turkey, and organized by Russia. These two summits provide a perfect example of the two approaches that major powers currently employ towards the region, as well as the sharp contrasts in the leadership and effectiveness of Russia and America in the region.
The events of late September perfectly illustrate how the Syrian Civil War has devolved into a series of proxy wars, with nations being involved in the country in a variety of ways. The recent announcement of a Turkish and Russian backed de-escalation zone in Idlib and the airstrikes by Israel against suspected Iranian pro-regime forces in Latakia, just show the variety of regional nations with interests in the country. In order to understand the impact these developments will have on the actions of these countries moving forward, it is crucial understand why such a large number of nations have become embroiled in this conflict.
North Korea has not produced any measurable and verifiable denuclearization measures after the Singapore Summit in June, and yet the United States seems to have no intention of imposing sanctions or applying pressures other than UN sanctions on North Korea. In contrast, the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal saw resounding success in demilitarizing Iran’s nuclear program. Yet, despite these achievements, the Trump administration has withdrawn from the pact and reinstated sanctions on Iran.
Despite Trump’s apparent drive to torpedo the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran Deal, President Macron seemed cautiously optimistic about the prospect that the United States would remain party to the deal, suggesting the development of an add-on deal or revised JCPOA which would address ancillary concerns in Washington. But the Europeans will have to do much more to save the Iran Deal and bring lasting peace between Brussels, Washington, and Tehran.
On June 5th, a number of Middle Eastern countries, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, separately announced an end to diplomatic ties with Qatar. Both Qatar and the Saudi-bloc have sought to promote their narrative of the conflict to officials in Washington. While all of this might seem to simply be “politics as usual”, there are a number of reasons to be concerned about the way the Gulf rivalries are playing out in Washington.
In the wake of the Iraqi Kurdish referendum on independence the international community has predictably come out in opposition to both the vote and the results. Meanwhile, Iraqi Kurdistan’s neighbors have forcefully opposed the referendum, with Ankara considering cutting off Kurdish access to a lucrative oil pipeline, Tehran threatening further blockade and isolation, and Baghdad contemplating military action. Given this intense opposition from its neighbors, it is difficult to imagine the landlocked Iraqi Kurdistan functioning as an independent state.
By overplaying its hand in sanctioning Qatar, Saudi Arabia is playing straight into the hands of its longtime regional enemy, Iran. Qatar has necessarily had to turn to Turkey and Iran for day-to-day goods and services it can no longer depend upon in the GCC block. Iran would rather sit back and allow Saudi Arabia to continue its self-defeating policy. The question remains; Is Saudi Arabia losing at its own game?